Month: April 2020

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for April 20. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT UPDATE:
The White House and Democratic leaders in the House and Senate are nearing a deal on a new relief package that would add an additional $300 billion in funding for the SBA Paycheck Protection Program loans, $60 billion for EIDL loans, $75 billion for hospital funding, and $25 billion earmarked for COVID-19 testing.

LUNCH & LEARN UPDATE:
Be sure to join us at 12:00 PM ET tomorrow for the next installment of TIA’s Virtual Lunch & Learn webinar series, “Economics Update with Noël Perry.” During this webinar, TIA’s Chief Economist Noël Perry will provide a review of COVID-19 data and the impacts and effects of sequestration on the economy and trucking.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:
Another good Sunday, with reductions in most countries and regions. The U.K. and Mexico are notable exceptions. Mexico, a relatively young host of the bug, is not a surprise. The U.K., at 46 days since the beginning of major new case daily counts, is more troubling.

The reduction of deaths in the U.S. and elsewhere was heartening. U.S. deaths are now down almost 40% from the peak day. In addition, new research provides an interesting perspective on U.S. metrics. Even as our testing rate keeps increasing, positive results stay stubbornly at about 20%. Experts expected the rate to slow, since we know that early testing was limited mainly to people with symptoms.

The data suggests two things: First, the number of infections is bigger than supposed, perhaps 20% of the full population. That would be devastating news for the proponents of sequestration. The results suggest that it hasn’t worked. Everybody eventually gets exposed, and 20%, or 66 million of us, pick up the bug. The second conclusion is positive.

The deaths per day are falling more rapidly than new cases per day, suggesting that the mortality rate will also decline over time. We are currently at 40,500 deaths and on the downslope. It looks like we will total 100,000 – conservatively. 100,000 deaths divided by 66,000,000 cases (if the 20% share holds), equals a mortality rate of .15%, a number well within the range of “normal” flu season casualties.

Many people are talking about a “new normal” for American life. That may occur as a result of the unprecedented economic interruption we have imposed on our fearful selves. A new normal is not indicated by the COVID-19 statistics. All flu bugs spread rapidly and kill a portion of our vulnerable people. Then they disappear until a new strain comes the next year. Every ten years or so, sicknesses and death jump, and we give that year’s bug a name. This one we call COVID-19. Let’s hope that the economic event is not sufficiently bad to earn its memorable title.

 

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We’ll be back tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

Noël reports that we are, or have, passed the turning point in our fight against COVID. With this news, I am reminded about the turning point in my favorite move, Casablanca. In this 1942 classic, Humphrey Bogart’s character is strictly neutral until, with a nod, he allows the patrons to sing La Marseillaise, the French National Anthem drowning out the German’s, joining the fight, and losing his bar in the process.

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for April 17. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:
A leveling of activity in the U.S. gives us confidence that the recent uptick in cases is a weekday accounting issue rather than a resumption of growth in the contagion. Also, France reports 17,000+ in new cases. That is certainly more evidence of the inefficiency of the French accounting rather than a commentary on what actually happened yesterday in France.

Note also the contrast in results from the early movers and the more recent victims of the contagion. All the red status countries are relatively distant from the recent hotspots in the U.S. and Europe. This implies that we will see an increase in the “other” category in my spreadsheet, even as the U.S. improves.

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We’ll be back on Monday with COVID-19 updates and information that came through over the weekend.

On another Friday during shut down, please enjoy the Glenn Miller Orchestra and the amazing Nicholas Brothers as they tap and sing “I’ve Got a Gal in Kalamazoo.”

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for April 16. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

FEDERAL UPDATE:
President Trump celebrated America’s truckers today at the White House. We all join the President in thanking the drivers for their role during the COVID-19 crisis. We also celebrate TIA Members that keep the trucks loaded and the allied industry that keeps them moving.

TIA sent a letter to the leaders of Congress urging them to appropriate more money to the Paycheck Protection Program. The SBA reports that they have loaned out the original $350 billion and there are thousands of loans waiting in the queue. TIA is urging members to call their Members of Congress to take action to save American business.

The Department of Defense has imposed a mask requirement for individuals entering U.S. military installations. Canada has also imposed a mask requirement for drivers crossing into Canada from the U.S.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:
The U.S. and a handful of countries in Western Europe had significant increases in new cases and new deaths. I will be watching this closely to see if my suspicion about weekly counting patterns holds. The graph in Exhibit 2 shows Spain’s experience over the last four weeks. In three of those weeks, Spain had increases on Wednesdays, indicating they clean up their numbers mid-week.

The U.S. has a similar if less precise pattern. What is good about this week is that Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are all below the values from a week prior. The obvious negative in the U.S. numbers is the length of time between the peak day and the beginning of a sustained drop in new cases.

 

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MISCELLANEOUS UPDATES:
Check out today’s Yahoo! Finance interview with TIA Member and XPO Logistics CEO Brad Jacobs, who discussed how the transport industry is handling COVID-19. Brad says he is bearish in the short term, bullish on the near term, and very bullish on the long term.

We’ll be back tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

Since parts of the U.S. had snow yesterday, here’s Claude Thornhill and his orchestra with “Snowfall.”

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for April 15. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

TIA UPDATE:
TIA is currently working with a broad assortment of industries to find a way to limit trial lawyers from turning the COVID crisis into the next series of tobacco and asbestos lawsuits. We’ll provide updates as they become available.

FEDERAL UPDATE:
The IRS has launched a new website for individuals to check the status of their economic impact payments and enter and update banking information for those folks that did not provide a direct deposit when filing their 2018 or 2019 tax returns.

The Administration expects the PPP loans to run out at the end of the week. Discussions continue on Capitol Hill to get more money injected into this program to help more small businesses. Additional information will be provided as it becomes available.

LUNCH & LEARN UPDATE:
Be sure to join us tomorrow at 12:00 PM ET for the next installment of TIA’s Virtual Lunch & Learn webinar series, “Before, During, & After: Financial Preparedness for Your Business During COVID-19.” During this webinar, a panel of Chief Financial Officers will discuss the importance of financial preparedness. A special thank you to TriumphPay for sponsoring the April 16 Virtual Lunch & Learn.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:
As I feared, the numbers took their typical mid-week pause yesterday. The U.S. was up slightly on cases and more significantly on deaths, posting a new daily high. Fortunately, the pause was less pronounced than last Tuesday, excepting France on new cases and the U.S. on deaths. The French move is probably from their inconsistent counting procedures. The U.S. move was likely a lagged phenomenon from the peak new case period of a week ago.

It has taken that long for the newly reported cases to incubate to the serious stage. I will be watching both numbers for the rest of the week to see if a trend asserts itself. The weekly patterns suggest that downward trends should return.

Note importantly that on the entire spreadsheet below, only in six cells (all death counts) set a new maximum daily count yesterday. In most of the other cells, yesterday’s totals were well below the max daily number – reminding us that the contagion is on a downslope. You can also see from the green shading for Australia and Norway that those countries are in a solid recovery phase where new COVID-19 cases are rare.

 

MISCELLANEOUS UPDATES:
The American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN) launched the ALAN Supply Chain Intelligence Center to provide organizations with better visibility to the assortment of restrictions and waivers related to COVID-19 and other disruptive events. The report is map-based to provide quick and reliable information.

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We’ll be back tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

Keeping with a railroad theme, enjoy Glenn Miller and his “Chattanooga Choo Choo.”

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for April 14. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

FEDERAL UPDATE:
The Treasury Department and Small Business Administration released additional guidance for self-employed and independent contractors to apply for loans under the government’s small business relief loan program.

The program launched for small businesses on April 3, and while the self-employed and independent contractors could start applying on April 10, they needed guidance on how to calculate payroll and other questions

LUNCH & LEARN UPDATE:
Today’s Virtual Lunch & Learn webinar series with Jim Kenny broke TIA’s all-time webinar participant record, with more than 411 registrants and 304 attendees. Clearly, these webinars have struck a nerve and resonated with 3PL professionals.

Be sure to join us at 12:00 PM ET on Thursday for the next installment, “Before, During, & After: Financial Preparedness for Your Business During COVID-19.” During this webinar, a panel of Chief Financial Officers who will discuss the importance of financial preparedness. A special thank you to TriumphPay for sponsoring the April 16 Virtual Lunch & Learn.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:
Another favorable day. This was despite being a weekday when following a weekend day when counts maybe unreliably low.

Exhibit 2 shows the improvement in contagion progress registered over the past two weeks. On March 31, two weeks ago, fifteen of the rows in Exhibit 1 were rising (red). Now there are only two. In contrast, there are now 21 rows with falling numbers (yellow) against only five two weeks ago. We now have powerful evidence of the relatively limited nature of this contagion.

Importantly, the U.S. is down 25% on new deaths compared to the maximum documented on Thursday last. At that rate of fall, we would be within three weeks, April 22, at or below recovery levels.

Worldwide deaths are down by larger percentages than new cases, making the point that many of the new case gains are due to more testing than more infections. New cases per day are down 24% from their maximum on 10 April, while deaths are down 27% from their maximum on 7 April. We expect this contrast to increase over time as deaths are fairly reliably counted, while cases are mainly counted when significant symptoms cause the person to seek medical aid.

Certainly, many more people have been exposed, and infected, without symptoms, thus not counted. The chart on Exhibit 3 plots the relationship between mortality rate and the percent of a population tested. One can see that mortality rates drop to 1% or less as testing rates approach and surpass 10%.

 

 

We’ll be back tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

As we continue to be optimistic with improvements in cases across New York, here’s Duke Ellington & His Orchestra with “Take the ‘A’ Train.”

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for April 13. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

FEDERAL UPDATE:
TIA has received updated guidance from the Pipeline & Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) regarding the transportation of hand sanitizer during the COVID-19 pandemic. The only difference between this policy and the original policy issued on April 2, 2020, is an addition to the marking requirements that applies to companies producing these materials under FDA guidance.

These firms are authorized to use the FDA label as an alternative marking as long as the mark is visible in transportation. The authorization applies to highway transportation only.

LUNCH & LEARN UPDATE:
Be sure to join us at 12:00 PM ET tomorrow for the next installment of TIA’s Virtual Lunch & Learn webinar series, “Before, During, & After: Financial Preparedness for Your Business During COVID-19.” During this webinar, a panel of Chief Financial Officers who will discuss the importance of financial preparedness, including:

• How to Successfully Prepare Your Business for Situations Such as a Global Pandemic, SBA/EILD Application Process Overview;
• How to Use Current Programs to Grow Your Business; and
• How to Prepare for the Surge in Freight Once the COVID-19 Pandemic Clears.

A special thank you to TriumphPay for sponsoring the April 14 Virtual Lunch & Learn.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:
Saturday was a broadly favorable day, highlighted by a reduction in new cases and new deaths in the U.S. Note that the daily totals for all the large aggregations are below previous highs. This is good evidence that the entire contagion has reached the inflection point.

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We’ll be back tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

Here’s Glenn Miller and his Orchestra with “A String of Pearls” from 1942; enjoy!

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for April 10. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

Make sure your employees receive critical industry news and updates – such as these Daily Updates – to keep your company healthy in these challenging times. Please contact [email protected] with a list of employees in your company to ensure that everyone benefits from their TIA Membership and has immediate access to crucial TIA resources. You may also log in to the website at www.tianet.org to update your staff listing.

FEDERAL UPDATE:
The Federal Reserve announced new plans yesterday to pump an additional $2.3 trillion of stimulus into a U.S. economy that has been ravaged by the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. The new Fed action will commit to hundreds of billions of dollars in loans to mid-size businesses and the purchase of short-term notes directly from states and large counties. The program details are the following:

1. Bolster the effectiveness of the Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) by supplying liquidity to participating financial institutions through term financing backed by PPP loans to small businesses. The PPP provides loans to small businesses so that they can keep their workers on the payroll. The Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility (PPPLF) will extend credit to eligible financial institutions that originate PPP loans, taking the loans as collateral at face value.

2. Ensure credit flows to small and mid-sized businesses with the purchase of up to $600 billion in loans through the Main Street Lending Program. The Department of the Treasury, using funding from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) will provide $75 billion in equity to the facility.

3. Increase the flow of credit to households and businesses through capital markets, by expanding the size and scope of the Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities (PMCCF and SMCCF) as well as the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). These three programs will now support up to $850 billion in credit backed by $85 billion in credit protection provided by the Treasury.

4. Help state and local governments manage cash flow stresses caused by the coronavirus pandemic by establishing a Municipal Liquidity Facility that will offer up to $500 billion in lending to states and municipalities. The Treasury will provide $35 billion of credit protection to the Federal Reserve for the Municipal Liquidity Facility using funds appropriated by the CARES Act.

5. The Main Street Lending Program will enhance support for small and medium-size business that were in financial good standing before the Coronavirus pandemic by offering 4-year loans to companies with up to 1000 employees with revenue less the 2.5 million (compared to the SBA PPP loans which were designated for companies with 500 employees or less). These loans will have payments deferred for 6 months.

6. The Main Street loans would be a minimum of $1 million and a maximum of either $25 million or an amount that “when added to the Eligible Borrower’s existing outstanding and committed but undrawn debt, does not exceed four times the Eligible Borrower’s 2019 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization,” whatever is less, the Fed said.

7. The Fed will purchase up to $600 billion in loans, with terms seeing an interest rate equal to the Fed’s Secure Overnight Financing Rate, currently 0.01%, plus 250-400 basis points with a four-year maturity.

GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS UPDATE:
Neil Bradley from the U.S Chamber of Commerce just reported on the weekly Small Business Town Hall, that over 250,000 small businesses have applied for the PPP loans. The U.S. Senate was unable to move forward with the unanimous consent request yesterday that would have put another $250 billion in the pot for these loans. Senate Democrats blocked because they want money for hospitals and states as well. With independent contractors being able to apply today, this money will be gone quickly, unless Congress acts.

Please be advised that the very popular Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan will become active online today for individuals who file Form 1099s annually. These independent contractors should be filling out the same application as companies; at the top of the application, you will see a box for independent contractors.

TIA UPDATE:
The industry’s favorite two prognosticators (Noël Perry & Donald Broughton) have teamed up and are now producing a more in-depth look at the COVID-19 crisis and its economic impact.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:
Thursday exhibited its usual move to a weekly max in cases, especially in Western Europe. Documentation practice has created weekend lulls and mid-week maximums in the reporting of new cases. The U.S. was up modestly, although still below last Saturday’s peak. Our numbers continue to be influenced by the expansion of testing.

American medical staff have now tested 2.2 million people, almost twice as much as the next nearest country, Germany. Importantly, U.S. deaths were down for the second straight day, suggesting an inflection in that critical data set.

Graph 2 (below) presents a chart from a webinar produced today by Broughton Capital, where we presented a look at the economic effects of the contagion and the resulting economic restrictions. It shows the highly volatile conditions expected for the next three months. April will be down dramatically, the weakest month in U.S. history, to be followed after another very weak month by strongest month in U.S. history, the bounce back in June. This will be a wild ride for supply chain managers and their associates.

I read today that the Pennsylvania Legislature is considering a bill to override some of Governor Wolf’s economic restrictions. This is clear evidence of the growing concern for those economic effects. We will hear more of this in the coming weeks.

 

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We’ll be back Monday with COVID-19 updates and information that came through over the weekend.

  Passover, Good Friday, Easter and the end of another week of captivity requires a fun song, so here’s Judy Garland with “On the Atchison, Topeka & the Santa Fe” from the 1946 film Harvey Girls.

My friend Larry Gross not only reports on rail and intermodal but is also an avid photographer. He shares one of his pictures of a Santa Fe steam engine at work.

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for April 9. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

Make sure your employees receive critical industry news and updates – such as these Daily Updates – to keep your company healthy in these challenging times. Please contact [email protected] with a list of employees in your company to ensure that everyone benefits from their TIA Membership and has immediate access to crucial TIA resources. You may also log in to the website at www.tianet.org to update your staff listing.

GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS UPDATE:
As TIA remains in constant communication with Congress, the Small Business Administration (SBA) and the Executive Branch to ensure that the joint Treasury Department and SBA’s Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is appropriated money, we want to hear from you to see how your experience was in applying for – and receiving – relief funds.

Please assist TIA in understanding your individual process in receiving federal relief from the Coronavirus pandemic that has affected our health and economy so greatly. This survey is 100% anonymous and you will not be asked to submit any personal information. This survey will help us in better assisting you and measure key data metrics from our members to better represent you and your interests on Capitol Hill and with the Administration.

TIA UPDATE:
In the past couple of days, we’ve seen some interesting reports as to why we experienced shortages in the early shelter in place days.

The Washington Post reported that Americans have spent $1.4 billion on toilet paper in the past four weeks, a 102% increase from the same period last year, according to data collected by ILI, which tracks retail sales based on the product barcodes.

So why a shortage? To start, not knowing how long the crisis would last, people simply panicked. The Washington Post also noted that we are also using significantly more toilet paper at home because we are no longer using it at work, school, restaurants or other public places. This increased home use has created supply displacement.

The same number of people have the same need for toilet paper, but the industry is not set up for a wholesale move from work and school to home. Home toilet paper is softer, packaged in smaller rolls, and is made and distributed by different companies than the jumbo rolls seen in offices, institutional settings, and public restrooms. The industry is, however, adapting – just like the rest of us.

The Supply Chain Analysis Network (SCAN) reports that nationwide, an average of 34% of daily calories are consumed as “food-away-from-home” and in New York City, that average grows to 50% of daily calories. So, again, when Americans are suddenly forced to eat those calories at home, it puts undue pressure on the supply chain. The SCAN report looked at food distribution in the New York to Washington, DC area and found that the allied trucking industry has quickly adapted to the changing market and is meeting the demand.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:
Wednesday showed a welcome drop in new cases in the U.S., bolstering the case that we have reached – or are just past – the inflection point for new cases. That means two important things: First, we are roughly halfway through the crisis at 32 days, indicating that full relief should occur in early May. Second, as the numbers subside, look for a gradual relaxation of economic strictures. Note, however, that the number of new deaths continues to rise, given the lag between case discovery and deaths.

We hope for an inflection in new deaths per day in three or four days. Importantly, even as the U.S. approaches 2,000 deaths per day, those deaths yet occur in only one of 22,222 citizens. Each death, of course, is a personal tragedy. However, the epidemic remains ranked in the middle of recent epidemics in the combination of contagion and mortality. See Exhibit 2 for that comparison.

Results in 2020 remain well behind the worst-case scenarios commonly cited in the press. As you look at that exhibit keep in mind that is uses a logarithmic scale.

Europe, clearly well down from its peaks, took a pause Wednesday as several important countries apparently found new cases not documented over the weekend and early in the week. Such gyrations are to be expected. France is typical of the volatility of the metrics. However, in that case, France was to the good side Wednesday with a major reduction in new cast count.

 

TIA VIRTUAL LUNCH & LEARN UPDATE:
We had two excellent Virtual Lunch & Learn webinars this week, covering the SBA’s Paycheck Protection Program on Tuesday and FMCSA’s Response to COVID-19 this afternoon. Both sessions had more than 100 participants, which we’re thrilled about!

Be sure to register for next week’s session “COVID-19: Managing Sales in a Changing” on Tuesday and “Before, During & After: Financial Preparedness for Your Business During COVID-19” on Thursday.

We’ll be back tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

Please enjoy Louis Armstrong & Billie Holiday’s “New Orleans.”

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for April 8. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

FEDERAL UPDATE:
The Treasury Department reported today that as much as $90 billion in PPP loans have been approved to date. Direct financial relief for Americans is currently planned to be direct deposited on April 15th of this month for those who have banking information on file with the Treasury Department.

All the Federal Agencies are working tirelessly to help Americans through this crisis. President Trump was on today’s call and thanked all the supporters in this time of crisis and to keep up the good work.

The President is asking Congress for additional funding to help businesses through this. The Senate and House are expected to move on this tomorrow, which is likely to include an additional $200-$250 billion for SBA loans.

TIA UPDATE:
We’re hearing from trucking companies that drivers are having a hard time getting wipes and hand sanitizer. We’ve reached out to city FEMA Administrators to see if they can provide assistance. If you can help your drivers, they’d appreciate it!

A reminder that you won’t want to miss tomorrow’s webinar: FMCSA’s Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic. This session will feature FMCSA’s Acting Administrator Jim Mullen + Q&A and is sponsored by Truckstop.com.

We’ll be back tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

Enjoy the Andrew Sisters as they sing “The Lady from 29 Palms.“

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for April 7. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

FEDERAL UPDATE:
The U.S. Senate plans to pass another smaller relief package on Thursday by voice vote that could potentially provide an additional $200-$250 billion in additional funding for small businesses.

There has been a huge influx of applications to the SBA PPP loans over the last couple of days and Congress wants to ensure that as many small businesses can take advantage of this important loan as possible.

TIA UPDATE:
TIA’s Virtual Lunch & Learn webinar series is proving to be a hit with many of you, as we had more than 110 registrants for this afternoon’s session providing a walkthrough of the SBA’s Paycheck Protection Program. If you were unable to attend, you can view the session on-demand. Thank you again to McLeod Software for sponsoring today’s webinar.

A reminder that you won’t want to miss Thursday’s webinar: FMCSA’s Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic. This session will feature FMCSA’s Acting Administrator Jim Mullen + Q&A and is sponsored by Truckstop.com.

NOËL PERRY’S DAILY COVID-19 UPDATE:
As I suspected, the dramatic reduction we saw in Sunday’s new cases for the U.S. and France included some Sunday accounting. Obviously some missed cases showed up in today’s numbers, raising new cases above Sunday’s count. Nonetheless, the average for both was well below their Saturday peaks, indicating an inflection point. We will know more tomorrow.

Almost everybody else was down on new cases. The consistency of the patterns across multiple countries and regions indicates that the worst is past for new cases. Given the lags on deaths, we have several more days before those numbers inflect.

It looks like the World will total 150,000 deaths and the U.S. around 50,000. Those are troubling numbers for sure. We can be thankful that they will fall short of the fears of millions of deaths.

We’ll be back tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

Here’s Bing Crosby singing about the “Dear Hearts & Gentle People” that live in his home town. We love hearing from you, our dear hearts and gentle people, but we really missed seeing you in Austin last week.