TIA Daily COVID-19 Update: April 14th

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for April 14. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

FEDERAL UPDATE:
The Treasury Department and Small Business Administration released additional guidance for self-employed and independent contractors to apply for loans under the government’s small business relief loan program.

The program launched for small businesses on April 3, and while the self-employed and independent contractors could start applying on April 10, they needed guidance on how to calculate payroll and other questions

LUNCH & LEARN UPDATE:
Today’s Virtual Lunch & Learn webinar series with Jim Kenny broke TIA’s all-time webinar participant record, with more than 411 registrants and 304 attendees. Clearly, these webinars have struck a nerve and resonated with 3PL professionals.

Be sure to join us at 12:00 PM ET on Thursday for the next installment, “Before, During, & After: Financial Preparedness for Your Business During COVID-19.” During this webinar, a panel of Chief Financial Officers who will discuss the importance of financial preparedness. A special thank you to TriumphPay for sponsoring the April 16 Virtual Lunch & Learn.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:
Another favorable day. This was despite being a weekday when following a weekend day when counts maybe unreliably low.

Exhibit 2 shows the improvement in contagion progress registered over the past two weeks. On March 31, two weeks ago, fifteen of the rows in Exhibit 1 were rising (red). Now there are only two. In contrast, there are now 21 rows with falling numbers (yellow) against only five two weeks ago. We now have powerful evidence of the relatively limited nature of this contagion.

Importantly, the U.S. is down 25% on new deaths compared to the maximum documented on Thursday last. At that rate of fall, we would be within three weeks, April 22, at or below recovery levels.

Worldwide deaths are down by larger percentages than new cases, making the point that many of the new case gains are due to more testing than more infections. New cases per day are down 24% from their maximum on 10 April, while deaths are down 27% from their maximum on 7 April. We expect this contrast to increase over time as deaths are fairly reliably counted, while cases are mainly counted when significant symptoms cause the person to seek medical aid.

Certainly, many more people have been exposed, and infected, without symptoms, thus not counted. The chart on Exhibit 3 plots the relationship between mortality rate and the percent of a population tested. One can see that mortality rates drop to 1% or less as testing rates approach and surpass 10%.

We’ll be back tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

As we continue to be optimistic with improvements in cases across New York, here’s Duke Ellington & His Orchestra with “Take the ‘A’ Train.”