|NOËL PERRY UPDATE:
Friday was a mixed day, up in cases week-over-week, down in deaths. Note in the bottom chart on Exhibit 1 that the ratio of deaths to cases has fallen gradually since the death rate peaked around April 20. That decline is a good thing, suggesting either an improvement in health care or a decline in the potency of the bug.
You will see, as always in Exhibit 2, bottom, that the increases in cases come from the states with ‘newer’ contagions, especially the large states in the Sun Belt. We have seen such differentials throughout the spread of COVID-19, as the bug works its way through one population then another. This is why we emphasize the progress made in Western Europe and now the Northeastern U.S. states. What has happened there will eventually be happening throughout the U.S. and then in south of our borders where the contagion is yet in its acceleration stages.