As we hoped, yesterday produced good results after the Wednesday catchup for the long weekend was done. Although this remains a quirky week, U.S. cases registered their best week-over-week reduction while deaths fell as well. Of particular note is the week-over-week drop in ‘Rest of the Week’ cases and deaths, suggesting that the newer parts of the country have achieved herd immunity.

FL, IL, and LA posted the best gains.

The full week death number for the U.S. dropped below 1,000 for the first time. It was over 2,100 late in April. A continuation of that rate of reduction would have us at very low death counts by the end of June. That would put the U.S. at 118,000 deaths, a troubling number, but well below forecast numbers of a month ago. While this contagion has produced totals well above the optimistic forecasts that Asian statistics suggested in March, its results are fundamentally below the levels that health experts used to justify the extreme economic restrictions.