TIA Daily COVID-19 Update: June 3rd

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for June 3. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s .
ADVOCACY UPDATE:

Today the House Transportation & Infrastructure (T&I) Committee released the Investing in a New Vision for the Environment and Surface Transportation in America in America Act or the INVEST Act. The INVEST Act is a five-year, $494 billion surface transportation re-authorization bill, to replace the FAST Act which expires on September 30, 2020. TIA Government Affairs team has prepared a background paper on items of interest for 3PLs. Please find the background paper .

 

TIA UPDATE:

Thank you for joining us for all of our COVID-19 updates. These will begin to be distributed only on Mondays, Wendesndays, & Fridays, but we will be sure to inform you of any pertinent updates as soon as possible.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:

Tuesday’s numbers were up week-to-week in both cases and deaths. Most of the case increases came from Texas, Arizona, and the Other category. Much of the story is the continued effect of the long weekend.

However, new analysis shows a significant structural explanation. If you look at the third chart on Exhibit 3, you will see that all of the welcome reductions we have witnessed since late April are concentrated in the Northeast states where the contagion scored its first and biggest hits. The beginning mortality rates were almost twice the national average there – nearly two-thirds of the deaths in just eight states. Now, blessedly, deaths have declined in the Northeast to below the national average.

The Northeast data shows the now-familiar pattern of problems early, followed by a slow decline. The ‘rest’ numbers are not declining because of the heterogeneous nature of those states. Fourteen of those states have falling contagions; twelve are in the inflecting stage, while seventeen have rising contagions. We got falling national stats through much of May because the original victims were hit so hard, and their recoveries counted for a lot. Now that they are showing low numbers, the still flat numbers from the rest dominate the average. We won’t get a resumption of declines until the contagions reach herd immunity in states like California, Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina. We are hopeful that such a process will begin soon. However, some analyses, like the one we distributed from David Mackie of J.P. Morgan, postulate that increased social mobility will either retard or reverse any reductions. Results over the next two weeks will tell us if David is right.

Either way, this data and other new analyses show that we have a two-part epidemic. The early stage, concentrated in dense Eastern Cities, was unusually severe, approaching pandemic proportions, hence the lockdowns. That stage is now over, leaving us with a troubling but manageable contagion consistent with a bad year of ‘normal’ influenza. Americans seem increasingly willing to live with that risk in exchange for the return to a fully-operating economy.

We’ll be back on Friday afternoon with additional COVID-19 updates and information.

Here’s Glenn Miller & His Orchestra and “.”

TIA Daily COVID-19 Update: May 29th

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for May 29. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s .
ADVOCACY UPDATE:

The Government Affairs team recently recorded the latest on the little unknown regulation 49 CFR 371.3 that is making all the noise in Washington, DC right now. TIA’s Vice President of Government Affairs Chris Burroughs examines 371.3 and the original intent of the regulation and whether or not a broker can legally contract out of it, because of NDAs they are required to sign by their shipper customers. You don’t want to miss this podcast.  to listen!

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:

As we hoped, yesterday produced good results after the Wednesday catchup for the long weekend was done. Although this remains a quirky week, U.S. cases registered their best week-over-week reduction while deaths fell as well. Of particular note is the week-over-week drop in ‘Rest of the Week’ cases and deaths, suggesting that the newer parts of the country have achieved herd immunity.

FL, IL, and LA posted the best gains.

The full week death number for the U.S. dropped below 1,000 for the first time. It was over 2,100 late in April. A continuation of that rate of reduction would have us at very low death counts by the end of June. That would put the U.S. at 118,000 deaths, a troubling number, but well below forecast numbers of a month ago. While this contagion has produced totals well above the optimistic forecasts that Asian statistics suggested in March, its results are fundamentally below the levels that health experts used to justify the extreme economic restrictions.

We’ll be back Monday with COVID-19 updates and information that came throughout the weekend.

What’s better on a summer Friday than the Andrews Sisters and “.” Have a safe and fun weekend!

TIA Daily COVID-19 Update: May 28th

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for May 28. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s .
LUNCH & LEARN UPDATE:

Thanks to everyone who joined today’s , “Generating Business and Protecting the Brand in a COVID Economy.” As a reminder, all Virtual Lunch & Learn webinars can also be accessed . Please Note: Due to the proprietary nature of the information presented in this webinar, the presentation will not be made available to attendees.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:

Yesterday was a makeup day for the long weekend. This effect is most obvious in the ‘Other’ segment of the U.S. data where the case count was up 1,941 from the previous Wednesday, normally a modest day. The Other segment also pared with Pennsylvania to produce an increase in deaths over a week ago. We expect more favorable results tomorrow as the metric turbulence eases. California had a better day, especially concerning cases.

We’ll be back on tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

Please enjoy Duke Ellington as we “.”

TIA Daily COVID-19 Update: May 27th

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for May 27. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s .
ADVOCACY UPDATE:

The Government Affairs team recently recorded the latest  on the little unknown regulation 49 CFR 371.3 that is making all the noise in Washington, DC right now. TIA’s Vice President of Government Affairs Chris Burroughs examines CFR 371.3 and the original intent of the regulation and whether or not a broker can legally contract out of it, because of NDAs they are required to sign by their shipper customers. A link to the podcast will be emailed to TIA Members towards the end of the week, so keep an eye on your inbox!

 

LUNCH & LEARN UPDATE:

Reminder to join us tomorrow at 12:00 PM ET for the latest installment of TIA’s  series – Generating Business and Protecting the Brand in a COVID Economy. This webinar will help you to navigate the new COVID economy, reshape your business approach, and leverage your sales and marketing to ultimately grow share of customers and generate new business. Brian Everett, CEO of the , will share key sales and marketing metrics and best practices that have been used successfully by other intermediaries during these uncertain times. !

 

TIA UPDATE:

Join TIA and  tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET for the latest  – Transportation Systems, Strategy & Selection – featuring a conversation on strategy and selection of a Transportation Management System (TMS) that’s right for you. A quality TMS can reduce costs, but many brokers don’t take advantage or know which TMS works best for their business. The right TMS can improve efficiencies, accuracy, execution, reduce spending, and improve workflow. !

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:

Another good day marked an important milestone for the U.S. The significant reduction in week-over-week deaths brought us more than fifty percent below our peak in deaths in early April. This good news comes despite California’s increase in cases and Rhode Island’s increases in deaths. Such exceptions will continue given the variations in the virus’ trends and our measurement of the same.

Today will be another important day it being the second day after a weekend/holiday pause when the authorities often play catchup. The numbers will probably be up. We will see by how much. Note that yesterday was up over Monday, but well below the previous Tuesday. We hope for that today.

We’ll be back on tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

please enjoy “Far Away Places” in two versions,  and .

TIA Daily COVID-19 Update: May 26th

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for May 26. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s .
ADVOCACY UPDATE:

The Government Affairs team recently recorded the latest  on the little unknown regulation 49 CFR 371.3 that is making all the noise in Washington, DC right now. TIA’s Vice President of Government Affairs Chris Burroughs examines CFR 371.3 and the original intent of the regulation and whether or not a broker can legally contract out of it, because of NDAs they are required to sign by their shipper customers. A link to the podcast will be emailed to TIA Members towards the end of the week, so keep an eye on your inbox!

 

LUNCH & LEARN UPDATE:

Thanks to everyone who joined today’s  webinar, “From Golden Handcuffs to Non-Competes: Understanding Employment Contracts & Restrictions.” As a reminder, all Virtual Lunch & Learn webinars can also be accessed .

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:

Wonderful U.S. numbers yesterday. But remember the holiday has certainly lowered the reports. We will know much more tomorrow. Be prepared for increases.

Note that now California has taken the lead for new cases. California’s performance is not surprising for such a large state. They are apparently short of the numbers needed for herd immunity. However, their new deaths per day number is miraculously low. Wouldn’t it be nice if this virus is losing strength?

We’ll be back on tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

Please enjoy Glenn Miller & His Orchestra and “.

TIA Daily COVID-19 Update: May 22nd

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for May 22. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

ADVOCACY UPDATE:

In response to ongoing debates in the industry related to the COVID-19 pandemic, TIA has released the following flyer to its members and the industry at large, calling on all members of the transportation industry – carriers, shippers and brokers – to come together and focus on the issues that have long plagued the industry. Learn more by clicking here.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:

Friday was a mixed day, up in cases week-over-week, down in deaths. Note in the bottom chart on Exhibit 1 that the ratio of deaths to cases has fallen gradually since the death rate peaked around April 20. That decline is a good thing, suggesting either an improvement in health care or a decline in the potency of the bug.

You will see, as always in Exhibit 2, bottom, that the increases in cases come from the states with ‘newer’ contagions, especially the large states in the Sun Belt. We have seen such differentials throughout the spread of COVID-19, as the bug works its way through one population then another. This is why we emphasize the progress made in Western Europe and now the Northeastern U.S. states. What has happened there will eventually be happening throughout the U.S. and then in south of our borders where the contagion is yet in its acceleration stages.


We’ll be back on tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

As we celebrate Memorial Day, we are grateful for all those who have served, and especially those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country. Please enjoy the West Point band and Master Sargent MaryKay Messenger as she sings all five service songs.

TIA Daily COVID-19 Update: May 22nd

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for May 22. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s .
ADVOCACY UPDATE:

In response to ongoing debates in the industry related to the COVID-19 pandemic, TIA has released the following  to its members and the industry at large, calling on all members of the transportation industry – carriers, shippers and brokers – to come together and focus on the issues that have long plagued the industry. Learn more by .

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:

Friday was a mixed day, up in cases week-over-week, down in deaths. Note in the bottom chart on Exhibit 1 that the ratio of deaths to cases has fallen gradually since the death rate peaked around April 20. That decline is a good thing, suggesting either an improvement in health care or a decline in the potency of the bug.

You will see, as always in Exhibit 2, bottom, that the increases in cases come from the states with ‘newer’ contagions, especially the large states in the Sun Belt. We have seen such differentials throughout the spread of COVID-19, as the bug works its way through one population then another. This is why we emphasize the progress made in Western Europe and now the Northeastern U.S. states. What has happened there will eventually be happening throughout the U.S. and then in south of our borders where the contagion is yet in its acceleration stages.

We’ll be back on tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

As we celebrate Memorial Day, we are grateful for all those who have served, and especially those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country. Please enjoy the 

TIA Daily COVID-19 Update: May 21st

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for May 21. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

 

FEDERAL UPDATE:

The House of Representatives is preparing to vote on changes to the government’s small business loan program next week that will offer more flexibility to companies affected by COVID-19 after widespread concerns by some businesses about strict mandates, including several from small businesses throughout the United States. Alot of owner-operators were not able to take advantage to the loan programs, because the way the rules were written.

The changes to the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), designed to help struggling businesses stay alive and keep paying their workers during the pandemic, is likely to garner bipartisan support in both the House and Senate as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have voiced support for fixes to the landmark program. It’s likely to be one of the first measures the House will vote on by proxy to limit the number of lawmakers gathering in the U.S. Capitol, though exact timing on the vote hasn’t been released yet.

TIA Government Affairs team will continue to monitor the situation and report back on passage of any COVID-19 relief package.

 

LUNCH & LEARN UPDATE:

Thanks to everyone who joined today’s Virtual Lunch & Learn webinar, “The Impacts of COVID-19 on the United States, Mexico & Canada Cross-Border Movements.” As a reminder, all Virtual Lunch & Learn webinars can also be accessed on-demand.

 

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:

Another decent U.S. day with a noticeable decline in the U.S.7-day death rates. The only significant statistical change is another spike in U.S. tests. It appears that we have a typical case of American enthusiasm. It is no surprise that Russia, with the second-largest contagion, trails only the U.S. in total tests. This is a strange renewal of our traditional rivalry with the Russians.

You will find reassuring data in Exhibit 4, another good piece of work from J.P. Morgan. That data test whether contagion rates have gone up in countries and states that have relaxed economic restrictions. The answer to the test is a resounding “no!” Contagion rates have continued to fall regardless of an entity’s” policies. Infection rates have not risen as most health experts have predicted and are still warning us about. Perhaps it is simply a media hungry for another eye-catching story. Either way, the data says the opposite, contagion rates have not risen as people have interacted more.


We’ll be back on tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

Here are the Andrews Sisters with, “Six Jerks in A Jeep”.

TIA Daily COVID-19 Update: May 20th

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for May 20. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

 

LUNCH & LEARN UPDATE:

Don’t forget to join us at 12:00 PM ET tomorrow for TIA’s Virtual Lunch & Learn webinar, “The Impacts of COVID-19 on the United States, Mexico & Canada Cross-Border Movements.” Participants will hear from industry experts regarding current COVID-19 regulations and business closures, the impact on labor and the overall economy, and cross-border logistics and transportation between the United States, Mexico and Canada.

 

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:

The U.S. new case and death numbers resumed falling on a week-over-week basis on Tuesday. Most of Europe is in a maintenance mode with new cases at relatively stable low levels. Of the ‘experienced’ contagions, only Iran’s has shown a resurgence. Although that is in cases, not deaths.

There are two views of the contagion process. The medical experts talk about a ‘reproduction’ rate, the number of new cases each old case produces. If greater than one, the contagion expands. If less than one, the contagion shrinks. Thus we get the justification for sequestration. Keeping interaction low produces a reproduction rate below one. It is assumed that the sequestration has achieved that, and, as sequestration is lifted, the reproduction rate will increase. Note that no one has yet successfully measured reproduction, nor has anyone verified that sequestration is indeed limiting interaction to a meaningful degree. The projections you encounter in the media are all model-driven, based on a collection of logical, but still hypothetical assumptions.

The alternate view of the process is that the bug moves through the population, exposing most people over time, infecting a minority, and causing grave danger to a minority of those infected. The Idea is that each strain of influenza affects a different fraction of the population according to individuals’ resistance to infection. On the Diamond Princess Cruise ship, almost all were exposed, forty-six people were infected. None died. In New York, despite the presence of the bug well before sequestration took effect, only one in fifty has been infected, and 8% of those infected have died. Apparently, most of the passengers on the Diamond Princess and most New Yorkers are resistant to this bug. Remember, there is a flu season every year, without sequestration, that infects about 10% of the U.S. population. The rest of us skate free. This bug has infected far fewer so far, .4% of the population, but sadly has a higher mortality rate than normal cases of flu. Note importantly, that both views benefit should the bugs mutate to less dangerous forms. These things do go away eventually, and likely before all populations are exposed.

As one evaluates the two views, keep in mind that the statistics support the second view. The reproductive model cannot explain why Asian countries have radically lower health effects than European and American countries. Nor can it explain why case numbers have not risen in countries that have reduced sequestration. They are playing baseball in South Korea now. As a result, we will continue to provide you with the statistical evidence while remaining vigilant in our search for new evidence.


We’ll be back on tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

Continuing our service’s theme, here’s Irving Berlin’s, “This is the Army” from 1942.

TIA Daily COVID-19 Update: May 19th

As TIA continues to monitor the situation surrounding COVID-19 and it’s impact on the 3PL and transportation industries, here is your Daily Update for May 19. As a reminder, you can find all the latest information, resources, guidance, and news from TIA’s COVID-19 Response Center.

ADVOCACY UPDATE:

In response to ongoing debates in the industry related to the COVID-19 pandemic, TIA has released the following flyer to its members and the industry at large, calling on all members of the transportation industry – carriers, shippers and brokers – to come together and focus on the issues that have long plagued the industry. Learn more by clicking here.

 

TIA UPDATE:

Be sure to register for TMSA’s webinar – COVID’s Impact on Transportation: From Crisis to Recovery – on Wednesday, May 20th at 2:00 PM ET. This webinar will feature TIA’s President & CEO Bob Voltmann and Chief Economist Noel Perry, along with Tom Sanderson, Haydn Powell, Daniel Stanton, Scott Grady, and Brian Everett. Learn more or register now!

LUNCH & LEARN UPDATE:

Thanks to everyone who joined today’s Virtual Lunch & Learn webinarManaging Your Intermodal Program During COVID-19. As a reminder, all Virtual Lunch & Learn webinars can also be accessed on-demand.

NOËL PERRY UPDATE:

Monday marked the first of the expected pauses in the fall of new cases in the U.S.. Led by gains in most of the Big city/Industrial states, U.S. week-over-week numbers were up for the first time in two weeks. Western Europe went through three or four such disappointing stretches.

Of more concern is the rising trend for cases in Iran. Could this be signs of the first second wave of cases? Probably not. The charts at the bottom of Exhibit 1 show that deaths have continued to decline in Iran despite the swing upwards over the last two weeks in cases. Looks like the Iranians are keeping records differently now.


We’ll be back on tomorrow with COVID-19 updates and information that came through overnight.

Continuing our service theme, here are the Andrews Sisters singing, “The Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy.

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