Category: COVID-19

Tuesday was a particularly good day for cases. The improvement came from the new-case states whose numbers exceeded the old Hot Spot states. With the approach of those states to very low numbers, the daily reductions that have dominated U.S. stats will soon disappear. So, for the U.S. to achieve overall reductions, the reductions must come from the new states. We see that today in Arizona, a recent expander.

Note that one or two good days will put Mexico and Brazil in the Inflection phase, something we have been hoping for. They are where the U.S. was a month ago.

The U.S. was back on a downhill track with respect to deaths Wednesday with reductions in most states. It was a neutral day for cases, with significant week-over-week increases in CA, FL, NC, AZ, all good retirement states.

In Europe, Sweden reported a major increase in cases, without an accompanying rise in deaths. We see there another of the common reporting glitches, obviously a catch-up day.

Regarding Sweden, a country with few restrictions on mobility, a recent report states that tighter restrictions would have saved lives there. Typically, however, the report neglects to quantify the additional economic cost of such an option. Note that the case data in the U.S. does not indicate eliminating restrictions based on earlier standards for case reductions. Nonetheless, the country is steadily opening up due to a growing appreciation for the economic effects of restrictions.

Tuesday’s numbers were up week-to-week in both cases and deaths. Most of the case increases came from Texas, Arizona, and the Other category. Much of the story is the continued effect of the long weekend.

However, new analysis shows a significant structural explanation. If you look at the third chart on Exhibit 3, you will see that all of the welcome reductions we have witnessed since late April are concentrated in the Northeast states where the contagion scored its first and biggest hits. The beginning mortality rates were almost twice the national average there – nearly two-thirds of the deaths in just eight states. Now, blessedly, deaths have declined in the Northeast to below the national average.

The Northeast data shows the now-familiar pattern of problems early, followed by a slow decline. The ‘rest’ numbers are not declining because of the heterogeneous nature of those states. Fourteen of those states have falling contagions; twelve are in the inflecting stage, while seventeen have rising contagions. We got falling national stats through much of May because the original victims were hit so hard, and their recoveries counted for a lot. Now that they are showing low numbers, the still flat numbers from the rest dominate the average. We won’t get a resumption of declines until the contagions reach herd immunity in states like California, Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina. We are hopeful that such a process will begin soon. However, some analyses, like the one we distributed from David Mackie of J.P. Morgan, postulate that increased social mobility will either retard or reverse any reductions. Results over the next two weeks will tell us if David is right.

Either way, this data and other new analyses show that we have a two-part epidemic. The early stage, concentrated in dense Eastern Cities, was unusually severe, approaching pandemic proportions, hence the lockdowns. That stage is now over, leaving us with a troubling but manageable contagion consistent with a bad year of ‘normal’ influenza. Americans seem increasingly willing to live with that risk in exchange for the return to a fully-operating economy.

As we hoped, yesterday produced good results after the Wednesday catchup for the long weekend was done. Although this remains a quirky week, U.S. cases registered their best week-over-week reduction while deaths fell as well. Of particular note is the week-over-week drop in ‘Rest of the Week’ cases and deaths, suggesting that the newer parts of the country have achieved herd immunity.

FL, IL, and LA posted the best gains.

The full week death number for the U.S. dropped below 1,000 for the first time. It was over 2,100 late in April. A continuation of that rate of reduction would have us at very low death counts by the end of June. That would put the U.S. at 118,000 deaths, a troubling number, but well below forecast numbers of a month ago. While this contagion has produced totals well above the optimistic forecasts that Asian statistics suggested in March, its results are fundamentally below the levels that health experts used to justify the extreme economic restrictions.

Yesterday was a makeup day for the long weekend. This effect is most obvious in the ‘Other’ segment of the U.S. data where the case count was up 1,941 from the previous Wednesday, normally a modest day. The Other segment also pared with Pennsylvania to produce an increase in deaths over a week ago. We expect more favorable results tomorrow as the metric turbulence eases. California had a better day, especially concerning cases.

Another good day marked an important milestone for the U.S. The significant reduction in week-over-week deaths brought us more than fifty percent below our peak in deaths in early April. This good news comes despite California’s increase in cases and Rhode Island’s increases in deaths. Such exceptions will continue given the variations in the virus’ trends and our measurement of the same.

Today will be another important day it being the second day after a weekend/holiday pause when the authorities often play catchup. The numbers will probably be up. We will see by how much. Note that yesterday was up over Monday, but well below the previous Tuesday. We hope for that today.

Wonderful U.S. numbers yesterday. But remember the holiday has certainly lowered the reports. We will know much more tomorrow. Be prepared for increases.

Note that now California has taken the lead for new cases. California’s performance is not surprising for such a large state. They are apparently short of the numbers needed for herd immunity. However, their new deaths per day number is miraculously low. Wouldn’t it be nice if this virus is losing strength?